Welcome to Project Catalyst
– A ClimateWorks Initiative –
Project Catalyst – Bringing together leading experts from around the world to provide insightful analytical support that will help shape a successful post-Kyoto international climate agreement
The risks from climate change are a reality, and many regions around the world are already facing some of its undesired effects. Without immediate action, the world may lose its ability to contain warming to below 2°C
(3.6°F), presenting a severe danger to human society. There is the potential to achieve that goal if long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are stabilized below 450 parts per million (ppm). Without action we are likely to re ach 550 ppm within two decades moving towards catastrophic changes, and any return to a below-450 ppm path, if possible at all, will be increasingly costly. In order to prevent this from happening, the world needs to cut GHG emissions by at least 17 gigatons (Gt) by 2020 against business as usual projections.
(3.6°F), presenting a severe danger to human society. There is the potential to achieve that goal if long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are stabilized below 450 parts per million (ppm). Without action we are likely to re ach 550 ppm within two decades moving towards catastrophic changes, and any return to a below-450 ppm path, if possible at all, will be increasingly costly. In order to prevent this from happening, the world needs to cut GHG emissions by at least 17 gigatons (Gt) by 2020 against business as usual projections.The December UNFCCC Copenhagen Conference constitutes a crucial opportunity for the world to agree on a global long-term plan that facilitates the driving of economic development along a low-carbon, climate resilient growth path. Among other provisions, a successfully comprehensive agreement must include commitments from the developed and developing countries according to the principle of shared but differentiated responsibility, financial measures, the establishment of carbon markets, measures related to forestry and agriculture, and provisions for technology transfers.
Climate change is a solvable problem and the solution presents a major opportunity in terms of both economic growth and global development. The technologies required are largely available today, the policies needed are known, and the costs are manageable. Far from presenting an economic cost impossible to surmount, it is indeed possible to achieve a 17 Gt reduction by 2020 by following a cost-efficient approach. The McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve identifies nearly 19 Gt of abatement opportunity in this period, at average cost close to zero. Energy efficiency measures, on the left hand side of the curve, not only result in an enormous reduction of emissions, but also pay back.
However, the proposals currently on the table (such as EU ETS, the proposed Waxman-Markey Bill in the US, and other reduction commitments put forward 
by other states) will only lead to a five to nine Gt carbon abatement from BAU by 2020. If these proposals are not substantively modified in Copenhagen, they will only take us halfway to the required 17 Gt abatement, which will leave us on track to a global temperature increase of at least 3°C. Such an increase would certainly carry catastrophic consequences for the world’s economy.
by other states) will only lead to a five to nine Gt carbon abatement from BAU by 2020. If these proposals are not substantively modified in Copenhagen, they will only take us halfway to the required 17 Gt abatement, which will leave us on track to a global temperature increase of at least 3°C. Such an increase would certainly carry catastrophic consequences for the world’s economy. The papers available on this website go into more detail of the requirements to limit warming to 2°C and other critical elements of a global climate agreement at Copenhagen. These papers have been the result of a highly valued contribution of over 150 experts and stakeholders on the field.
